Standard Bank considered that Angola’s trade balance “is close to reaching a surplus”, due to oil prices above US $ 70 and the reduction of imports in recent years.
“With oil prices above $ 70 a barrel and the demand for imports depressed by the recession of the last two years, the trade balance is close to switching to a surplus,” reads an analysis note published Friday by the Economic Department of Standard Bank.
According to the document, sent to investors, analysts expect the National Reserve Bank of Angola (BNA) “to continue to devalue the Kwanza,” but add that it is difficult to estimate how far it will continue to do so, “it being evident that there is a lot of demand for foreign currency yet to be satisfied”.
This demand “remains the biggest complication for the structural adjustment process needed for the economy,” Standard Bank analysts say.
The BNA governor recently admitted that the option for a floating exchange rate regime “is not just good news,” but “it also requires some sacrifices, both at the corporate level and at the personal level.”
In 2017, Angolan exports fell 24 percent to US $ 14 billion compared to 2016.
In this period, the trade balance was a deficit and the country had a negative balance of US $ 386.7 million.
According to a report by the General Tax Administration (AGT), quoted by the newspaper Expansão in its 13th edition, there is a fall in exports of non-oil products.
In the period under review, according to the aforementioned newspaper, imports increased by 2.3 percent, representing an increase of US $ 326.1 million over the previous year.