Africa’s economic affairs analyst at the United Nations, Helena Afonso, told Lusa to expect a 2.4 per cent growth in Angola and stressed that “the economic situation is improving “.
Africa’s economic affairs analyst at the United Nations, Helena Afonso, told Lusa on Monday to expect a 2.4 per cent growth in Angola and stressed that “the economic situation is improving “.
“In Angola, the economic situation is improving in what is the second largest economy in South Africa, growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.4 per cent this year and 3 per cent in 2020, sustained by higher domestic demand and increased production oil and diamonds, “the economist told Lusa on the day the United Nations released the report on the World Economic Situation, which predicts that Angola grew by 1 per cent last year.
“The decrease in inflationary pressures is expected to sustain private consumption, while ongoing economic reforms are expected to improve the business climate and boost fixed investment,” he added, adding that VAT, scheduled for the start of the second half of the year, “will help the mobilization of domestic resources “.
Despite the positive outlook for the second largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, Helena Afonso also points to some risks, notably due to dependence on oil and Chinese funding.
“The country’s economic performance remains substantially linked to oil price developments, which we expect to remain at around $ 72 per barrel in 2019, after averaging $ 73 in 2018 and $ 54 in 2017,” he said. said the economist.
“This chronic dependence continues to be the main negative risk to the outlook on Angola. Trade tensions between the US and China present a negative risk to Angolan oil revenues if tariffs affect China’s economic growth more than expected and undermine so the demand for oil in this country, “concludes the economist in the statements to Lusa.
The report on the Global Economic Situation, now released in New York, is jointly prepared by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN / DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and the five departments regional organizations with the contribution of the United Nations World Tourism Organization.
In the report, analysts write that in Africa, “the ratio of public debt to GDP should increase, with the exception of Angola, which managed to reduce public debt from 75 per cent of GDP in 2016 to 48 per cent in 2018 and is expected to decline further more than 30 per cent in 2020, “even though the government itself took on more than 70 per cent of the debt last year” and the IMF, in the texts accompanying the Expanded Financing Program, assume that public debt was at 90 per cent , last year.
In the global approach, the UN / DESA says that global economic growth, expected to remain at 3 per cent, as in the past year, “hides underlying risks and imbalances,” pointing to examples of “the confluence of short-term risks such as tensions financial fragilities and climatic risks. ”
Economic growth “is uneven and often does not go where it is most accurate,” economists say, claiming that “the underlying vulnerabilities endanger long-term progress in implementing the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda.”
Among the potential triggers of a financial crisis, UN / DESA points to “global trade tensions, monetary policy adjustments in developed economies, commodity price shocks, Brexit-related political disruptions in Europe and economic disruptions or internal policies. “