“Among most African countries, Angola is probably the country that has undergone the most structural reforms in the last five years”
Analyst Aurelien Mali, from Moody’s rating firm, has foreseen an improvement of Angola’s economic situation in the near future. The firm revised this week the country’s growth forecast giving it an upturn trend, from 1.2% to 2.7%, possibly marking the end of five years of negative economic growth.
The senior analyst who follows the Angolan economy has considered that Angola is the most reformist country in Africa and that the budgetary adjustment effort is “commendable”.
“Among most African countries, Angola is probably the country that has undergone the most structural reforms in the last five years”, Aurelien Mali said in an interview to the Portuguese “Lusa”, held by videoconference from Dubai, pointing to budgetary consolidation, the new budget law, the introduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) and adjustment of public finances as examples.
However, the analysts defended close attention to the country’s economic reality.
“It is necessary to see what reality will be like” and underlined that, “for now, the risks reflected in the ‘rating’ are balanced and three months of positive environment is a short time frame to change the assessment of the quality of Angola’s sovereign credit”.
In the interview, Aurelien Mali agrees that Angola should not need to seek debt relief beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) and pointed out that the Angolan economy is in a very different situation compared to Zambia, Ethiopia and Chad, which requested adherence to the Common Framework for Debt Treatment in addition to the DSSI.
“When looking at the external debt service and financial aid package of international financial institutions and taking into account the adjustment that the country has already made, it shows that there is a possible way for the country not to need debt relief under the Common Framework “, he underlined.