South Africa’s Reserve Bank will keep its repo rate unchanged next week as inflation remains within the bank’s comfort range despite showing signs of quickening in recent months, a Reuters poll found on Thursday.
All 25 economists surveyed this week said the central bank would keep its repo rate at a record low 3.5% at its May 20 meeting.
Elna Moolman, an economist at Standard Bank, said while global inflation forecasts were drifting higher, domestic inflation forecasts were comfortably inside the SARB’s target range.
South Africa tries to keep inflation between 3%-6%.
Survey medians suggest the Reserve Bank will hike rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% either in January or March next year followed by another quarter of a percent rise either in July or September 2022 to 4.00%.
BULLISH COMMODITIES PRICES
The rise in the consumer price index was expected to average 4.2% this year and quicken to 4.3% next year.
Starkly, the change in producer price inflation expectations got a big lift from last month’s survey, particularly for this quarter at 6.7%, a 1.5 percentage points increase. This year’s PPI was expected at 5.3% compared to a 2.6% average last year.
Hugo Pienaar at the Bureau for Economic Research said the PPI was reflecting the sharp rise in commodity prices, ranging from agriculture to steel, earlier than the CPI. The main reason is because PPI is dominated by goods whereas the services part of the CPI has remained subdued amid weak demand.
Also read: South African Reserve Bank low rates beneficial to agricultural development
Still, higher commodity prices have been a boon for Africa’s most industrialized economy, boosting the rand against the greenback to 13.95/$, a level last seen 16 months ago, amid upbeat factory activity reported on Tuesday. read more
Nedbank economists wrote in a note when first-round effects have passed, both consumer and producer prices will be relatively contained until demand is lifted.
This has most economists in agreement that rates won’t be lifted this year, however Goldman Sachs expects a cut in November.
South Africa’s economy is expected to rebound 3.9% this year from last year’s 7.0% contraction, a 0.2 percentage points increase from April’s median.
Mining production increased 21.3% year-on-year in March, with the largest positive contributor coming from platinum group metals. read more
Investec’s Annabel Bishop said South Africa could see a faster growth trajectory out to 2026, and higher levels of employment and incomes, if it implements its current planned reforms quickly instead of the slow pace of past years.
Poll medians suggested growth would slow to 2.3% and 2.0% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
