The Oxford Economics Africa consultancy announced on Wednesday that it would revise its inflation forecast for Mozambique from 7.3% to close to 9% for this year as a whole due to rising fuel and food prices.
“The strengthening of the exchange rate alone will not be enough to offset the impact of recent global fuel and food price increases on consumer prices, so we will revise our average inflation forecast for 2022 from 7.3% to close to 9%,” analysts at the consultancy wrote.
Year-on-year inflation in Mozambique in February was 6.84%, the country’s National Statistics Institute (INE) said today, signalling a drop compared to January.
Inflation in January had been 7.8% and fell by 96 basis points in February, according to the latest bulletin on the Consumer Price Index (IPC) published last week.
According to the INE, inflation in Mozambique is mainly influenced by food and beverage prices.
In the note sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the analysts wrote that despite the global impacts of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the consequences for Mozambique should not be particularly relevant.
“As Mozambique does not have significant trade with Russia or Ukraine, export revenues should receive a boost due to higher prices for aluminium, coal and natural gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” the analysts point out.
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According to the experts, “the increase in government and corporate revenues due to the rise in the price of raw materials, and the consequent increase in corporate and public consumption, should offset the impact of the reduction in household disposable income caused by the rise in consumption and the rise in inflation.
The CPI figures are calculated by INE from the price variations of a basket of goods and services, with data collected in Maputo, Beira and Nampula.