The economist from the African department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Thibault Lemaire, quoted by Portuguese news agency Lusa, said last week that he expected consortiums led by France’s TotalEnergies and US company ExxonMobil to start production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2027 and 2029, respectively.
“Two onshore LNG exploration projects are expected to start production in 2027 and 2029, which will have a positive impact on growth via production, tax revenues and the current account,” said the IMF economist, taking it for granted that TotalEnergies will return to Mozambique after suspending work due to violence in the north of the country, and that ExxonMobil will soon proceed with a positive Final Investment Decision (DFI) for Mozambique.
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Thibault Lemaire said that following the release of the report on the forecast for sub-Saharan Africa, presented as part of the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank, that the “country continues to face significant development challenges, particularly due to the greater frequency and severity of natural disasters related to climate change.
After the 4.1% recorded in 2022, a considerable acceleration from the 2.3% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021, the IMF expects for this year an acceleration of economic expansion.
“For 2023, and in the medium term, we expect a further recovery. Growth of 5 percent in 2023 will be driven by extractive industries, including Coral Sul, the first liquefied natural gas project,” whose first export was already made at the end of last year, he pointed out.
Mozambique has three development projects approved for exploration of natural gas reserves in the Rovuma basin, classified as among the largest in the world, off the coast of Cabo Delgado. Two of these projects are larger and involve channelling gas from the seabed to land, cooling it in a plant to export it by sea in a liquid state.
One is led by TotalEnergies (the Area 1 consortium) and work progressed until it was suspended indefinitely after an armed attack on Palma in March 2021, when the French energy company said it would only restart work when the area was safe.
The other is the still unannounced investment led by ExxonMobil and Eni (Area 4 consortium).
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A third completed and smaller project also belongs to the Area 4 consortium and consists of a floating platform to capture and process gas for export, directly at sea, which started up in November 2022.
The floating platform is expected to produce 3.4 mtpa (million tonnes per year) of liquefied natural gas, while Area 1 aims for 13.12 mtpa and the onshore plan for Area 4 envisages 15 mtpa.
