Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude producer, alongside Angola, is poised to drive a significant increase in the continent’s oil output, with production projected to reach 3.39 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2025.
According to the State of African Energy 2025 Outlook by the African Energy Chamber (AEC), Africa’s oil production is expected to grow by over 500,000 bpd, with West Africa leading the way. The region’s oil output, currently at approximately 6.5 million bpd, is anticipated to rise to nearly 7 million bpd by the end of 2025.
West Africa’s dominance in oil supply is underscored by its current production of around 3.7 million bpd, driven primarily by Nigeria and Angola. The AEC report projects this figure could increase to between 3.8 and 3.9 million bpd, contingent on sustained output from Angola and a recovery in Nigeria’s oil sector. Africa is expected to contribute about 8% to the global oil supply in 2025, reflecting steady growth in both regional and global oil production.
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Nigeria’s crude oil production has recently shown remarkable recovery, crossing the 1.5 million bpd threshold in December 2024, its highest level in four years. This milestone surpasses the country’s quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and marks a significant improvement from the challenges faced in 2023, when production was capped at 1.3 million bpd. Enhanced security measures, including efforts to curb pipeline vandalism and oil theft, have been instrumental in this turnaround.
Furthermore, Nigeria aims to reach a production target of 2.06 million bpd in 2025, including both blended and unblended condensates. This ambitious goal underscores the country’s commitment to consolidating its position as a leader in Africa’s oil sector.
Alongside improved stability in regions like Sudan, these advancements are set to enhance Africa’s role in the global energy market, reinforcing its strategic importance in meeting future energy demands.
