In November 2025, South Africa will make history as the first African country to host the G20 Summit, welcoming global leaders to Johannesburg, its economic capital.
With the eyes of the world on South Africa, expectations are high that the country will use this platform to amplify Africa’s priorities, from poverty alleviation, food security, and debt relief to post-COVID-19 recovery, climate change, and geopolitical tensions.
While the summit offers South Africa an unprecedented opportunity to shape global discourse, its success hinges on its ability to navigate an array of domestic, continental, and international challenges. From internal political turbulence and regional disputes to a shifting global order, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration faces an uphill task in delivering a landmark event.
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Continental Discord: The Challenge of African Unity
Despite South Africa’s prominent role as a diplomatic bridge for Africa, continental tensions could complicate its ability to present a united front at the G20. The African Union (AU) will support South Africa in mediating competing interests among its 54 member states, yet deep divisions remain.
Conflicts between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over the M23 rebels, the Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over the Grand Renaissance Dam, and the Somalia-Ethiopia row over Somaliland continue to fracture African diplomacy. Additionally, Morocco and Algeria remain at odds over Western Sahara, while Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger’s exit from ECOWAS to form the Alliance of Sahel States signals further regional instability.
With Africa’s strongest regional bloc, ECOWAS, in crisis, and major security concerns plaguing the continent, South Africa will face a daunting task in fostering unity while advancing Africa’s global interests.
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Domestic Political Uncertainty: A Weakening ANC and Rising Radicalism
Internally, South Africa’s political landscape has never been more volatile. For the first time since the end of Apartheid in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) is governing in a coalition with the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA). The two parties stand on opposite ends of the spectrum on domestic and foreign policy, making consensus-building on G20 priorities a complex challenge.
The ANC’s dominance has been steadily eroded by corruption scandals, high unemployment, economic inequality, and rampant crime. At the same time, radical political movements, such as Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party and Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), continue to stoke racial and populist sentiments. Malema’s inflammatory rhetoric, including calls to violence against white farmers, raises concerns over potential disruptions leading up to the G20.
With such a fragile political environment, South Africa must work to ensure a smooth summit while mitigating domestic instability that could overshadow the event.
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The Trump Factor: A Diplomatic Minefield
On the global stage, South Africa’s G20 success may be shaped by its relationship with the United States, particularly under President Donald Trump’s second term. His first presidency saw strained US-Africa relations, and analysts remain sceptical of any significant policy shift under his return.
South Africa’s diplomatic balancing act is further complicated by its relations with Russia and China. A group of US senators is actively pushing for South Africa’s removal from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), citing:
• Alleged arms shipments to Russia for its war in Ukraine
• Tacit support for Moscow by refusing to condemn its actions
• Hosting sanctioned Russian vessels and conducting military drills with China and Russia
• Forcing Taiwan to relocate its liaison office from Pretoria
With an export volume of $55.9 billion, South Africa is AGOA’s largest beneficiary, significantly ahead of Nigeria ($11.2 billion) and Kenya ($7.3 billion). The loss of AGOA benefits could deal a devastating economic blow to the country.
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Meanwhile, Trump’s newly appointed Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has already announced his absence from the G20, citing South Africa’s controversial land expropriation law. Trump has also signed an executive order to cut aid to South Africa, signalling a further deterioration in US-South Africa relations.
With China’s deep pockets and Russia’s growing security interests in Africa, a potential fracture in US-South Africa relations could mark a turning point in the continent’s geopolitical alignments.
A Defining Moment for South Africa and Africa’s Global Aspirations
South Africa will host the G20 Summit under the theme “Fostering Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainable Development”. As the voice of 1.5 billion Africans, the country carries the weight of the continent’s aspirations on its shoulders.
Beyond domestic political upheaval, African diplomatic divisions, and global uncertainties, South Africa’s ability to lead the summit with strategic agility could reinforce its standing as a global diplomatic powerhouse. Moreover, success at the G20 may offer the ANC a much-needed political redemption, shaping both the country’s future and its role in the evolving global order.
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As it stands, the road to G20 glory is fraught with challenges, but if navigated skillfully, it could redefine South Africa’s position on the world stage.
