Over the past decade, many African governments have backed large-scale generation projects, from hydropower to utility solar. However, transmission investment has lagged badly. African Business and recent World Bank diagnostics both highlight that grid bottlenecks now leave a significant share of installed capacity either underused or stranded, despite rising demand and persistent energy access gaps.
Transmission bottlenecks move to the centre of the story
Timothy Mgaya, deputy managing director for distribution at Tanzania’s Electricity Supply Company (TANESCO), describes insufficient transmission system capacity as the main bottleneck in Africa’s power sector. He notes that many countries, including Tanzania, cannot fully use new generation assets because the grid cannot move power to where it is needed.
In response, TANESCO has shifted strategy. The utility is prioritising a national grid stabilisation project that builds new substations and associated transmission lines across major cities and districts, with a parallel programme to rehabilitate older substations. As a result, the focus is now on reliability and unlocking value from existing plants, rather than adding more generation that the grid cannot evacuate.
Nigeria offers a stark illustration of the wider challenge. According to data from the Association of Power Generation Companies, the country has over 15,500MW of installed capacity, but the transmission grid can wheel only about 4,500MW. In December 2025, THISDAY reported that 2,275.67MW of available generation went unused — equivalent to roughly one-third of available power. The problem is not lack of plants. It is the inability of transmission networks to carry power from source to demand.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, the pattern repeats. African Business reports that roughly 100GW of installed generation capacity serves a population of around one billion, yet a material share is stranded because high-voltage lines are fragmented or missing. One analyst summary captures the investment case clearly: Africa power transmission has moved from being a technical afterthought to the continent’s central energy asset class. For more on how this dynamic is reshaping capital flows, see our earlier analysis of power transmission gaps fuelling Africa’s grid gold rush.
Private capital is starting to respond. Pakinam Kafafi, chief executive of TAQA Arabia, argues that investors hesitate to fund new generation when there is no transmission or distribution infrastructure to evacuate power. She stresses that clear, stable long-term policy and regulatory frameworks are now essential to draw private capital into grid assets, which sit at the heart of project bankability.
Are new transmission models opening a structural opportunity?
Several governments are now reshaping how grids are financed and managed. Uganda has amended its Electricity Act to allow private participation in transmission, addressing fiscal constraints and competing budget demands. Uganda’s Electricity Regulatory Authority has licensed the country’s first independent power transmission (IPT) project, with groundbreaking on 2 July 2026. The regulator highlights transparent IPT regulations, a clear tariff methodology and defined roles for the ministry and transmission company, alongside formal dispute resolution mechanisms. Those features matter for investors seeking predictable, long-dated cash flows from regulated assets.
Kenya is moving in the same direction. Kipkemoi Kibias, acting managing director at the Kenya Electricity Transmission Company (KETRACO), says the utility has signed Africa’s first public-private partnership agreement for a transmission line, with Africa50 as the private investor and India’s Power Grid as technical partner. Kenya began to explore private partnerships for transmission in 2018, but only concluded its first IPT deal in December 2025, after updating PPP laws and building contractual frameworks for transmission rather than just generation. Kibias emphasises that investors need credible arrangements for political risk mitigation, given that transmission concessions span multiple electoral cycles.
Tanzania is also working with Africa50 on its first independent transmission project, complementing TANESCO’s grid stabilisation and rehabilitation programmes. Meanwhile, Zambia and Malawi are progressing a 400kV interconnector backed by the World Bank‘s RETRADE-SA programme, which aims to deepen Southern African Power Pool trading. Regional market integration from Cape Town to Cairo will depend on strong national backbones. Weak internal grids could become the next bottleneck, even if cross-border links are in place.
Looking ahead, investors should watch three signals. First, the evolution of IPT and PPP regulations in Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, including tariff design and risk-sharing mechanisms. Second, the pace at which regional power pools move from partial synchronisation to full market operation, as seen in Southern and Eastern Africa. Third, how quickly stranded generation falls as new lines, substations and storage assets come online. If current reforms hold, Africa power transmission could shift from chronic constraint to one of the continent’s most attractive regulated infrastructure plays over the coming decade.
Quick answers
African Business and World Bank diagnostics indicate that roughly 100GW of installed generation capacity serves sub-Saharan Africa, but a material share is stranded because high-voltage lines are fragmented or missing.
According to the Association of Power Generation Companies, Nigeria has over 15,500MW of installed capacity, but its transmission grid can wheel only about 4,500MW — leaving roughly one-third of available power unused as of December 2025.
Kenya concluded Africa’s first PPP transmission agreement in December 2025, with Africa50 and India’s Power Grid as partners, while Uganda licensed its first independent power transmission (IPT) project, with groundbreaking on 2 July 2026.
