At its 131st Monetary Policy Committee meeting in Luanda, the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) sharply raised its GDP growth forecast for this year to 6.15%, up from a previous estimate of 3.6%. Governor Manuel Tiago Dias announced the revision on 16 September, tying the upgrade directly to better-than-expected performance in the non-oil economy.
BNA’s bullish call on growth and diversification
According to the final communiqué, the BNA now sees non-oil sector growth at 7.16% in 2025. That growth is led by agro-livestock farming and forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, manufacturing, trade and construction. This marks a clear shift away from long-standing dependence on crude exports. It signals growing confidence in the real economy’s capacity to carry headline growth.
Recent national accounts data support that optimism. Angola’s National Statistics Institute reports that GDP grew 8.74% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. The non-oil sector expanded 9.24%, compared with 5.64% growth in the oil sector. As a result, cumulative growth for the first half of 2026 reached 7.15%. The rolling four-quarter rate stood at around 5.4%.
This growth revision comes as the BNA continues its easing cycle. The monetary policy committee cut the benchmark interest rate to 14.75% from 15.75% at its September meeting, extending rate reductions as inflation moved into single digits. Lower real rates, alongside strong non-oil momentum, are likely to reinforce domestic demand and investment appetite in the near term.
The upgrade also arrives as Angola pursues broader economic diversification. A joint Angola-Brazil agribusiness initiative targeting 800,000 hectares illustrates how the country is actively building non-oil productive capacity — one of the sectors the BNA specifically named as a growth driver. Angola’s upstream oil sector also continues to attract capital, with an estimated $70bn in upstream investment targeted over the decade, providing a floor beneath the fiscal outlook even as non-oil sectors accelerate.
How does the Angola GDP forecast compare with global benchmarks?
The BNA’s 6.15% projection sits well above multilateral estimates. The World Bank currently expects Angolan GDP growth of around 2.4% in 2026 on a market-rate basis. The IMF’s baseline is near 2.3%. As a result, the domestic forecast is roughly 3.75 percentage points higher than the World Bank view and 3.85 points above the IMF projection.
By contrast, recent assessments by the IMF and independent analysts describe Angola as growing about 3.1% in 2025. Inflation is easing, but oil output and external buffers remain under pressure. These more cautious views reflect concern about the durability of non-oil gains once base effects fade and commodity prices normalise.
However, the latest national accounts numbers challenge that caution. A second-quarter non-oil expansion of 9.24%, coupled with broad-based sectoral gains in communications, diamonds and manufacturing, points to a deeper shift in the growth mix. For portfolio managers and strategic investors, the message is clear: Angola is now one of the faster-growing frontier economies by official domestic estimates, with upside linked to the non-oil base.
The key analyst takeaway is simple: Angola’s upgraded growth path positions the country as a higher-beta, non-oil diversification story rather than a pure play on crude.
What does the expectations gap mean for investors?
Still, the expectations gap matters. A domestic forecast more than three percentage points above multilateral baselines raises questions about data quality, underlying assumptions and the sensitivity of the projection to potential oil or fiscal shocks. Therefore, investors will likely treat the BNA’s number as a high-case scenario rather than a guaranteed outcome.
For private capital, the opportunity lies in sectors named by the central bank. Agro-industry, fisheries and aquaculture, light manufacturing, trade and construction are all showing strong momentum. These sectors benefit from structural demand from a population of around 40 million and ongoing urbanisation. As a result, frontier equity and private-debt investors may find a deeper pipeline of bankable projects aligned with Angola’s diversification push.
As Angola moves through 2026, investors should watch three signals: whether non-oil growth above 7% persists into subsequent quarters, how the BNA balances further rate cuts against inflation risks, and whether multilateral institutions start to shift their Angola GDP forecast closer to Luanda’s more bullish view.
Quick answers
The Banco Nacional de Angola raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 6.15%, up from a previous estimate of 3.6%, citing stronger-than-expected non-oil sector performance.
The BNA’s 6.15% forecast is roughly 3.85 percentage points above the IMF’s baseline of around 2.3% and about 3.75 points above the World Bank’s estimate of approximately 2.4% for 2026.
The BNA attributes non-oil sector growth of 7.16% in 2025 to agro-livestock farming, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, manufacturing, trade and construction, alongside gains in communications and diamonds.
