The Angolan oil sector is projected to grow by 1.6% in 2025, according to the National Bank of Angola (BNA), driven by continued investment in exploration and production. Oil remains Angola’s primary revenue source, with 2024 oil export revenues reaching $36.2 billion, contributing 85.6% of total export earnings.
Oil remains Angola’s main source of revenue and exports. In 2024, oil export revenues reached $36.2 billion, averaging $9.1 billion per quarter. Revenues from crude oil accounted for 85.6% of total export earnings.
In terms of outlook, projections for 2025 indicate real GDP growth of 3.5%, mainly driven by a 4.2% expansion in the non-oil GDP. Key contributors to non-oil sector growth include investments in agriculture and livestock, expansion of the fisheries sector, increased public consumption and investment, stimulation of private sector operators, and modernisation of transport and logistics. An increase in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Angola’s non-oil sector is also expected.
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Oil revenues have played a crucial role in strengthening international reserves and balancing the country’s external accounts, ensuring greater exchange rate stability and inflation control. Inflation in 2024 stood at 27%, higher than the previous year, but is expected to decline to around 17% in 2025.
The main risks associated with these projections include a decline in domestic oil production, a potential drop in the average oil price below the assumed benchmark, the removal of fuel subsidies and adjustments to administered prices, lower-than-expected growth in the non-oil sector, and lastly, an adverse external supply shock in food commodities.
The Governor of the National Bank of Angola, Manuel Tiago Dias, emphasised the importance of the oil sector to the Angolan economy, particularly in its contribution to GDP and its impact on the country’s monetary policy.
