Zambia copper boom draws $5bn in mining capital

Copper production reached 890,346 tonnes in 2025, up from 825,513 tonnes in 2024, according to mines ministry data reported in September 2026. However, output missed the government’s one-million-tonne target. The shortfall highlights the gap between Zambia’s investment appeal and its production capacity.

Copper remains central to the economy. The mining sector accounts for about 15% of national income and 65% of exports, according to the source report. Meanwhile, copper prices exceeded $15,000 a tonne in mid-September, strengthening returns across the sector.

President Hakainde Hichilema is targeting annual production of three million tonnes by 2031. Yet analysts cited in the source estimate output could reach about 1.5 million tonnes by then. The target therefore depends on rapid mine development, new discoveries and reliable infrastructure.

Capital is returning to the Copperbelt

International mining groups are committing substantial capital. First Quantum Minerals is investing $1.25bn to expand its Kansanshi mine, while Barrick Gold plans a $2bn expansion at Lumwana.

KoBold Metals broke ground on the Mingomba copper project in April 2026. The project could require $2.3bn to $2.5bn and produce roughly 300,000 tonnes annually in the early 2030s.

Emirati owners have also restarted Mopani Copper Mines. The revival has restored operating activity after earlier suspensions, according to the source report. Chinese and Emirati capital is adding to the sector’s wider funding base.

These projects give Zambia a stronger platform for growth. However, the three-million-tonne target requires more than announced expansions. PwC estimates known and committed projects could support about 1.8 million tonnes at full capacity.

Exploration remains a constraint. Zambia neglected geological surveys for decades, while speculators held mining licences. A nationwide aerial survey is now under way, with results expected soon.

Power presents another bottleneck. Zambia relies heavily on hydropower, which suffered during the 2024 drought. National generating capacity has increased from 3.1 gigawatts in 2021 to about 4.6 gigawatts today, according to the source report. Mines nevertheless continue importing much of their electricity. A $250m Mercuria deal targeting Zambia power investment signals that the energy gap is attracting dedicated capital alongside the mining sector itself.

Can investment create wider value?

Production growth alone will not spread gains widely. The mining and quarrying sector employs about 90,000 people, or 2% of Zambia’s workforce, according to the source report.

Local suppliers offer a more scalable route. New local-content rules require mining companies to allocate at least 20% of core procurement to local providers. That requirement will rise to 40% after five years.

For investors, the policy shift creates opportunities in engineering, transport, equipment maintenance and mining services. It also tests whether Zambian firms can meet the quality, financing and delivery standards required by large operators.

Policy stability will matter just as much. Changes to mineral royalties reduced rates and allowed payments to be deducted from taxable income, according to the source report. The reforms have improved predictability for producers.

‘Zambia’s copper boom will be judged by production growth and domestic value creation.’

Investors should watch the aerial survey, new power supply, Mingomba’s development timetable and compliance with local-content rules. Those indicators will show whether Zambia can turn a strong copper cycle into a durable investment model.

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